Written by Steve Butler
As President of TRUE, I work with many lenders across all sectors of the industry – origination, insurance, secondary market, and servicing. TRUE has been helping mortgage companies transform their businesses for more than 10 years. As an example, we’ve seen entire sectors, like mortgage insurance, transform through AI adoption in terms of turnaround time, internal costs, efficiency, and accuracy. Any MI company that did not embrace AI technologies have become obsolete.
Over the past several months TRUE has been working with mortgage leaders and technology advisory groups to understand the impact of AI on the industry in 2025 and beyond. Now, new research has me concerned about a potential AI divide impacting mortgage originators. Here’s a first look at what’s coming.
Sharks in the Water
Our research shows that a few large lenders are in position to be real sharks in the 2025 market and are ready to disrupt lending processes as we know it. Rocket, Guaranteed Rate, and UWM are early technology adopters, fully embracing AI and all indicated publicly they are investing more than $100M to dominate the market by offering the best borrower experience.
Today they offer the shortest time to close for borrowers, stating that some conventional loans close in 10-15 days. AI streamlines the loan journey, providing borrowers with greater transparency and accelerating milestones such as pre-qualification and pre-approval.
Arms Race is On
There is a bit of an arms race going as these lenders invest more and more. Together Rocket and Rate captured 13% of the 2024 conventional loan market and have goals to double their market share by leveraging their new AI tech stacks. Check out some of the public claims on returns from these investments:
Rocket …
- “Of the 4.3 million data points extracted from documents including W-2s and bank statements …nearly 90% were automatically processed, saving an additional 4,000 hours of manual work for team members.”
- “…Rocket close loans nearly 2.5 times faster than the industry average.”
Rate…
- Increased efficiency: “Loan Officers now focus on providing personalized guidance to clients, helping them secure the best loan options.”
- Significant Cost Savings: “By automating crucial parts of the mortgage process, Rate Intelligence delivers an average savings of $900 to $1,200 per loan.”
Rocket Out for Blood
I think Rocket is the most aggressive in their pursuit for growth, publicly stating their goal to double overall market share from 4% to 8%. Given their 9% share of the conventional loan market in 2024 (per HMDA data), this suggests a target of capturing 18% of that market. Their strategy likely hinges on delivering a significantly superior borrower experience. In fact, their CEO doubled down on this goal recently on a podcast with HousingWire.
Where the Impact Will Be Felt First
Since the market is growing slowly in 2025, market share gain is going to come from the conventional mortgage business of other lenders. Rocket’s 4% market share comes primarily from their 9% share (2024) of conventional loans. Rocket is aiming to use their tech-enhanced borrower experience to double market share to 8%.
Hence, the Top 150 lenders will face the largest impact to their conventional mortgage business. The Top 150 lenders funded 1.3M conventional loans in 2024 and this is estimated to rise to 1.7M loans in 2025. Rocket’s 9% conventional loan share equated to 117K loans in 2024 and this is estimated at 153K loans in 2025 by virtue of industry growth in 2025.
Rocket’s goal of 8% market share requires them to significantly expand their presence in the conventional loan market. An estimated 18% share of that market (306,000 loans) in 2025 would achieve this. They intend to leverage their AI-powered borrower experience to gain 153,000 conventional loans from the top 150 competitors.
Making it Personal
So, here’s the thing: The AI revolution isn’t some distant threat. My research shows it’s hitting home soon – 2025, to be exact, and ramping up in 2026. Think about it: a booming purchase market, healthy refis… and Rocket and Rate ready to scoop up market share with their automated, scalable operations. I’ve built a table outlining the potential impact across a range of select originators, should these lenders remain in the “have not” category in terms of their AI tech stacks.
Take a look – it’s eye-opening.
What You Should Do
Let TRUE be your guide in navigating the complexities of how AI is changing the mortgage industry and its adoption with an organization likes yours. Our AI experts will share valuable insights and demonstrate how our Instant Borrower Intelligence platform can help you achieve your business goals. With TRUE MOS, you gain access to the same AI-powered edge as lenders with $100M+ investments, but with a more strategic and tailored approach.
We invested a decade in developing a first-of-its-kind platform that provides instant borrower intelligence — helping lenders like you stay in the game. And you’ve likely used our technology without realizing it since TRUE is used by nearly every mortgage insurer. We do the same for loan decisioning, making it precise, cost-effective, and lightning-quick — so you can close loans faster, delight customers, and focus on building a better book of business. TRUE transforms lenders quickly to delivery Strikingly-Fast Lending.
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Look out for my future blogs for a deep dives into where AI technology is going, specific use cases, and discuss a “smarter, not harder” approach to innovation.
